Jackson County is seeing an increase in homes on the market, but other factors complicate the sales outlook
By Carrie Dahle
As we move through 2024, many potential homebuyers ask the same question: Are we heading toward a buyer’s market? It’s a reasonable consideration, especially given the increase in housing inventory and the unique circumstances prompting some homeowners to sell. Even though interest rates remain low for many potential sellers, life changes such as job relocations, downsizing, or simply the need for a different lifestyle are driving sellers to list their homes, creating more options for buyers.
What defines a buyer’s market?
A buyer’s market occurs when there are more homes available than there are buyers, giving those in the market for a home an upper hand in negotiations. The telltale sign of this shift is a growing inventory, which increases buyer choices and puts downward pressure on prices.
In Jackson County, inventory numbers have certainly increased. As of Aug. 31, the number of active listings rose 21.2% compared with the same time last year. Communities like Central Point saw the most significant jump in active listings, with a staggering 103.7% increase. Jacksonville followed closely behind, experiencing a 56.3% growth. Medford, a key area, also showed notable changes: the 97504 ZIP code saw an increase of 40.5%, while the 97501 ZIP code showed a slight decline of 4.6% in active listings. (Jackson County August 2024 Statistics provided by Southern Oregon MLS).
The increased inventory means buyers now have more homes to choose from. While more options may appear enticing, the question remains: Does this signify a true buyer’s market?
Inventory vs. interest rates
Many sellers face the dilemma of holding onto homes with low interest rates. Sellers who secured mortgages at historically low rates are hesitant to move because they know that purchasing a new home at today’s higher rates will cost more, even if prices adjust slightly. For buyers, this can lead to a strange paradox — more homes available, but not necessarily better deals.
On one hand, we are seeing median home prices soften slightly in certain areas. For example, according to Southern Oregon MLS statistics, the median home price in Jacksonville has dropped 22.5% in the last year, from $680,000 to $527,263. Medford (97504) experienced a 2.2% decline in median home prices. However, some areas are experiencing upward trends. Ashland, for instance, saw a significant price increase of 8.4%, suggesting that market dynamics are still very much in flux.
What buyers can expect
For those looking to purchase, this might be an opportune time. Interest rates have come down significantly. With more homes on the market, there is less urgency to make hasty decisions, and buyers can afford to be more selective. Additionally, sellers who are motivated due to life changes may be more flexible when it comes to price and terms, making negotiations more favorable for buyers.
However, it’s important to remember that market trends can shift quickly. While the current rise in inventory is promising for buyers, factors such as interest rates, economic shifts and local market conditions can all affect the trajectory of the housing market.
Conclusion
Is a buyer’s market on the horizon? The answer is complex. The increase in inventory certainly suggests we are moving in that direction. But with interest rates still influencing both buyers and sellers, it’s unlikely we will see a dramatic shift overnight. For now, buyers should take advantage of the increased options and remain vigilant as market conditions evolve. Patience and timing will be key as we continue into the second half of 2024.
Ashland resident Carrie Dahle is president-elect of the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors and principal broker at John L. Scott, Ashland. Email her at carrie@scottlewisgroup.com.
