The killing is diminishing, the ethnic cleansing will proceed apace

By Herbert Rothschild

It appears that, once again, the Nobel Peace Prize will elude President Donald Trump despite his conviction that he deserves it. After all, he believes he has stopped or prevented eight wars. Like so many of his achievements, this one is historically unprecedented.

Here are the eight he referenced: Armenia-Azerbaijan, Democratic Republic of the Congo-Rwanda, Egypt-Ethiopia, India-Pakistan, Israel-Hamas, Israel-Iran, Serbia-Kosovo and Thailand-Cambodia. A cursory investigation into each of these reveals that either the nature of the conflict was not what Trump claimed or that he grossly exaggerated his contribution to its resolution or — and mostly this is the case — it hasn’t been resolved.

But Trump deserves some credit for interesting himself in situations that previous administrations appeared content to ignore. I want to single out the conflict in the eastern Congo, which has gone on for more than 30 years and has claimed between 3 million and 6 million lives. In my next column I’ll focus on that enormous human tragedy. In this one, I’ll focus on what Trump has done and plans to do regarding the war between Israel and Hamas.

The first thing to say is that the real conflict isn’t between Israel and Hamas, although for years Israel has used Hamas’ episodically armed resistance to justify its oppression and displacement of Palestinians. Since the birth of Zionism and subsequent Jewish migration to Palestine, the conflict has been between Jewish settlers and the resident population of non-Jews — mostly Muslim Palestinians — whose land they seized, almost entirely by force. The process of land theft has never ended.  

What has characterized Trump’s peace efforts, including his admirable willingness to talk with the leader of North Korea during the first Trump presidency, is a disinterest in the roots of the conflicts he believes he can resolve. That disinterest doomed his opening to North Korea.

In the case of Gaza, it has doomed the Palestinians. True, Israel’s killing of civilians there has diminished (not ended), and Israel has allowed more humanitarian aid to enter (though not enough). However, both those goals could have been achieved by ending arms shipments to Israel, as both international and U.S. law required Trump (and President Joe Biden before him) to do. What Trump’s peace plan does is end the long-standing pretense of U.S. support for Palestinian control of any land whatsoever.

Hamas has no effective presence on the West Bank, so by framing the conflict as one between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s ethnic cleansing on the West Bank could be, and was, completely ignored in the peace process. This even though, since the start of the current war in Gaza, Israeli settlements, settler violence against the Palestinians, and home destructions all intensified there.

Further, no Palestinians were included in the negotiations from which Trump’s original 20-point peace plan for Gaza emerged. Trump announced the plan last Sept. 29 with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu standing beside him. If peace isn’t the absence of conflict but the presence of justice, Trump’s peace plan was simply the affirmation of Israel’s conquest of the Gazans.

With this exception — that Israel is only going to occupy part of that 141-square-mile piece of land into which Israel penned more than 2 million Palestinians. If Trump’s plans are realized, he himself will have control of the Gaza coastline.

I hasten to say that the outcome I predict — the apportionment of Gaza between Israel and real estate developers led by Trump — seems to be contradicted by a provision of the 20-point plan, which was accepted by Hamas and Israel on Oct. 8 and authorized by the U.N. Security Council on Nov. 17. It calls for a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, composed of Palestinian professionals drawn from fields such as economics, health, education, finance, agriculture and internal security. That committee is to manage public services, infrastructure rehabilitation, humanitarian aid and public administration.

The 15 members of the NCAG have already been chosen by a process that seems to have been fair, and it held its first meeting in Cairo on Jan. 15-16. It will move to Gaza when conditions allow — in practice, when Israel allows its members through the Rafah checkpoint. Its authority will last until Dec. 31, 2027.

Were the NCAG to become the real government of all Gaza during that time and then guide a process for the Gazans to choose a more permanent governing body when the NCAG mandate expires, I would feel much better about the future. There is, however, little reason to believe in such an outcome.

First, Israel isn’t obliged to withdraw from Gaza either in whole or in part. It agreed not to annex or permanently occupy the Gaza Strip, but Israeli officials publicly said the army would stay in “defensive” positions and maintain control over critical strategic areas, a forward “defensive” line inside Gaza. These areas include border regions and whatever else Israel considers vital to its security. So, Palestinians will not control those portions of Gaza that Israel chooses to occupy militarily.

Second, the NCAG is under the supervision of a Board of Peace. The board will control the NCAG because the NCAG must report to the board, which can decide whether it’s fulfilling its mandate. More importantly, the board has control of the money.

And who is this Board of Peace? Some members of its executive board have already been named. Trump is its inaugural chairman and, under its charter, the central decision‑maker. Other members are Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, plus Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Robert Gabriel, all members of his administration. World Bank President Ajay Banga is the only member named so far who isn’t under Trump’s direct control.

Trump has made no secret that real estate development of the coastline is his main interest. At the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22, Kushner revealed a comprehensive plan for the physical reconstruction of Gaza. It included housing, utilities, hospitals and tourism development along the coast. I wonder which parts of that plan international financiers under Trump’s guidance will fund first?

Meanwhile, Israel airstrikes continue to target residential areas and kill Palestinians seeking to return to what’s left of their homes. Almost all Gazans are living in tents or bombed-out buildings. On Jan. 26, Haitham Abu Qass, a 12-day-old baby, died of exposure to extreme cold, bringing to 11 the number of children who have died of hypothermia this winter.

Herbert Rothschild’s columns appear Fridays. Opinions expressed in these columns represent the author’s views. Email Rothschild at [email protected]. Email letters to the editor and Viewpoint submissions to [email protected].