Report: Ashland is in the top 3% of communities at risk of having a catastrophic wildfire

By Paul R. Huard for Ashland.news

The Ashland City Council considered Monday the final draft of a broad-based, detailed wildfire plan that has one simple goal: To prevent Ashland from burning to the ground.

The nearly 400-page document, an update to the city’s 2004 plan, was paid for by a $250,000 federal grant the city received in 2023, according to the report. Along with fire mitigation firm MC Fire, a Boise company, the city appointed a 40-person advisory committee with representatives of local, state, federal, business and education institutions to compile the report.

Called the 2025 Community Wildfire Protection Plan, or CWPP, it is based on years of scientific study and driven by the realization that Ashland must address a sobering reality: Ashland is 97% more likely to have a catastrophic wildfire than other communities in the United States.

Factors such as the cheek-by-jowl housing density in the city, the prevalence and types of trees and shrubbery used in landscaping, and a high concentration of combustible fuels such as weeds and grasses in wildlands surrounding Ashland increase the risk of a city-destroying fire.

“It is not a question of if, but when, another major wildfire will affect Ashland. How and where that fire (and subsequent fires) burns could profoundly shape the city’s future,” the report noted.

But the individuals who offered the report to the council made it abundantly clear that the chief culprit that has exponentially increased the city’s wildfire risk is global climate change.

According to the report, the Ashland that residents and visitors know today is a city that planned and built homes and businesses in a climate and environment that no longer exists. That means changes are necessary, from landscaping practices to home construction — and, ideally, the plan will include ways to help residents embrace rather than fear the changes.

“The foundation of this is that a cultural shift has to be built,” said Ashland Mayor Tonya Graham during discussion about the plan during the two-and-a-half-hour study session.

The overall goal is to strategically decrease wildfire risks for 90% of the city’s homes, businesses, and buildings within 10 years of the plan’s adoption.

It won’t be cheap: An estimated $80 to 100 million over 10 years. An unspecified part of that would come from the city. A city staff report says the estimated cost includes expenditures “at all levels from individuals, rental property owners, local government, state government, federal government, nonprofits, foundations, businesses, and institutions,” and adds that “With the recent passage of wildfire prevention funding from the Oregon Legislature, an upcoming U.S. Forest Service grant opportunity, and interest from foundations and the business community, we anticipate ample opportunities to use the City’s wildfire risk reduction fee dollars to leverage and match external funding.”

Memories of the 2020 Almeda Fire loomed large over the Monday session. The human-caused fire, which started in Ashland, killed three people and destroyed 2,800 structures, primarily in Phoenix and Talent. The fire caused more than $1 billion in damages and recovery costs, according to the report.

The Almeda Fire is considered the worst wildfire in Oregon history – and the fire started “in our own back yard,” Chris Chambers, forestry officer for Ashland Fire & Rescue, told council members.

“Ashland is in the center of the target for wildfire risk,” said Chambers, who oversees management of municipal forest lands, which includes wildfire risk reduction.

During the study session, council members posed questions and made suggestions regarding any changes to the plan before it comes up for a final vote.

What comprises implementation is still being considered by the council and city staff. Council members floated ideas, including hiring additional staff to assess local risks and educate the public, working with insurers to make fire insurance more affordable, approaching other Rogue Valley communities to forge financial partnerships that will fund risk reduction, using the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) to help convince residents to participate in fire safety, eliminating some city codes and passing codes that better target wildfire risk reduction, and changing city code enforcement from voluntary to mandatory.

The proposed plan will be considered for adoption by the council on Aug. 19.

All six council members as well as the mayor attended Monday’s meeting.

The gravity of what the plan addresses was not lost to the council. Members repeatedly praised the detailed research and conclusions in the plan, while pointing out that dealing with wildfire risks will pose unique challenges — including painful tradeoffs regarding spending and programs.

“We have to consider that we can’t do all those things like we want to,” said Councilor Dylan Bloom, who called how the community reduces fire risk and hazards to Ashland an “existential question.”

“What are some of the hard sacrifices that we will have to make?” Councilor Jeff Dahle asked. “What are some of the trade-offs?”

Also attending the study session was state Sen. Jeff Golden, D-Ashland, who sat in the audience quietly listening to the presentation and taking notes.

In 2021, Golden voted with every other senator in the State Senate to support SB 762, an omnibus bill based on 37 recommendations in the wake of the 2020 fire season that included the creation of a statewide wildfire risk map. However, public outcry from mostly rural residents about the map was so overwhelming that he joined fellow senators earlier this year in a unanimous vote to rescind the map. 

In public comments at the time, Golden said misinformation about the use of the map, concern about property and fire insurance increases or cancellations, and a lack of information about the specifics of private property that could have mitigated designations that some property was deemed hazardous prompted the backlash.

One of the most significant aspects of the proposed 2025 plan is its effort to collect information from individuals who are usually underrepresented in government fire-reduction plans, presenters said.

Charisse Sydoriak, the volunteer lead community engagement liaison and wildfire risk assessor for Ashland Fire & Rescue, told the council that wildfire research tends to emphasize data gathered from homeowners.

Sydoriak, who professionally monitored and mapped wildfires for the National Parks Service for 28 years before offering her expertise as a city volunteer, said from 2015 to 2024 she and others working on the proposed plan interviewed more than 4,600 people identified as socially vulnerable regarding what they knew about wildfire preparation and what their concerns are regarding wildfire planning. People interviewed included senior citizens, people considered “housing insecure,” individuals who speak limited English, the disabled, and people living in poverty.

The results are eye-opening: Based on the surveys, 84% percent of renters in the city said they have no control over their home’s safety from wildfire; One-in-five Ashland residents live below the federal poverty line and about 40% of residents are “cost burdened,” meaning they struggle financially to pay for basic living necessities; About 22% of socially vulnerable residents have never received wildfire safety information, particularly apartment dwellers; Nearly half of the respondents — 49% — who are part of single-family residents say physical limitations make it difficult to perform wildfire mitigation work such as weed and brush clearing where they live.

In addition, about 47% of Ashland residents rent their homes, Sydoriak said.

“Renters have little control over what their landlords do,” she said. “But if the city burns, their chance of displacement is high.”

There is also the uncomfortable question of how Ashland will recover from a significant blaze if the worst happens.

Sandra Slattery, executive director of the Ashland Chamber of Commerce, told council members wildfire preparedness by Ashland businesses was essential for the city’s economic stability. Part of the preparation must include plans for the city’s recovery in the aftermath of a destructive fire, Slattery said.

“It is not a fun topic, but we are stewards of our economic future,” she said.

One example of the challenges of recovery are the results of the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed the city of Paradise, California, presenters said.  More than 50,000 people were displaced regionally by the blaze, which caused $16.5 billion in property damage and loss.

Many families have abandoned efforts to move back to Paradise, citing the fact that they cannot afford or receive wildfire insurance in the aftermath of the conflagration.

The study session presenters acknowledged that the challenges to implementation include convincing people to buy into the plan without it seeming overwhelming or impossible to do, as well as overcoming resistance because of suspicion or fear of government authority.

“Don’t brand the plan ‘City of Ashland,’” Sydoriak said. “They don’t like it.”

“We can’t do this without Ashlanders putting their shoulder to the wheel,” Mayor Graham said later in the meeting. “What does putting the wheel in front of them look like?”

One council member suggested approaching other cities in the Rogue Valley to explore cost-sharing and cooperation in implementing the wildfire protection plan.

“We are all in this together,” said Councilor Gina DuQuenne.

During an interview after the study session, Golden said he is proud of Ashland’s approach to gaining support for the plan by encouraging people to participate rather than forcing compliance and using surveys that determined what challenges the city’s most vulnerable people face regarding reducing fire danger.

“What they talked about in terms of culture changes and activating communities is key,” he said. “I think people all over the state and in especially fire-prone areas can get more interested voluntarily in being part of the solution. We’ve seen it happen.”

One other thing presenters made clear: The danger of continuing the status quo is simply too dangerous. In an interview, Sydoriak said people will have to change their behavior, particularly in terms of how they maintain their home and landscape their property.

“There will be some sacrifices, like you will need to change the appearance of your landscaping so it’s not the same (plant) species you might have been accustomed to,” she said. “You might need to change some of the features of your home. You will need to be very careful about maintenance of your property. You can’t just do it once and be done with it. This is a long-term commitment.”

Email freelance reporter Paul R. Huard at [email protected].

July 18: Story updated to say the Ashland City Council will vote on the Wildfire Protection Plan on Aug. 19, not Aug. 15.